A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
